Turkish – Israeli relations through the scope of Iran

Marsel RUSSO

Summer has come and gone. Wind, rain and cool weather has not let off during June. In these days where we are almost at the half point of summer, the weather has finally gotten warmer. However, the strong winds are still occasionally bothersome.

On the other hand, we are currently experiencing a period that is particularly heated in the political sense. On the one hand the events we are experiencing in the country and on the other hand all that is happening in this area shows us that the cards are being redistributed and that we are quickly moving towards a new period. However, it is not easy to determine how Turkey will manage this period in which the key pieces are moving around. This is particular so considering that there is currently no agreed-upon foreign policy and when we are at odds diplomatically with almost everyone.

Ankara’s relation in the most recent period – most obviously unintentionally – has been geared towards the creation of enemies. Acting out of the emotions of the policy makers, rather than observing national interests, has caused such a situation. In a region such as the Middle East, where there have been endless surprises throughout history, it is important who alliances are formed with. In this sense, it is unfortunately not enough to correctly interpret history. It is essential that national interests be determined and that consensus is reached over these interests. It is not possible to form healthy goals in an environment where foreign policy actions are not debated or questioned.

Turkey’s oldest border is with Iran. The conflict between the right side and the left side of the border has not subsided throughout the ages. Neither party has been able to establish dominance over the over. This has led to the parties viewing each other with respect; while always maintain a degree of wariness. In this sense, it is without a doubt that the 1979 Islamic Revolution was a turning point! The aftershock of the revolution separating Iran from the West and almost completely officially isolating Iran within the international arena was most definitely a chance for Turkey. Turkey started to present a profile or a country that the world respected, that the Muslim world took as an example that showed economic growth and that grew commercially during the years of European recession. While creating expectations of growth for foreign firms, Turkey became one of the irreplaceable markets that they drew strength from.

It is not wrong to claim that, in its pursuit of the goal of becoming a regional power, Turkey has not used its advantage against an Iran that chooses to take a stance against the west, that chooses to form alliances with autocratic regimes such as China and Russia that develop their own unique policies and that chooses to support “some” terrorist groups. Time will tell how dedicated Iran will remain to the agreement signed last week. Will an Iran that is no longer subject to embargoes align its foreign policy with more legitimate aims? Will it continue to manifest its desire to be a regional power through policies utilizing the Shiite card?

In any case, it seems that the situation for Turkey will be even more fragile. Will an Iran that is close to nuclear capabilities, owning petrol and natural gas, with a reach all over the Middle East be able to disrupt the balance in its own favor? Will it be able to tackle the twists and turns of this new era with the Iranian population that has been honed and forced to live the past 30 odd years under stress?

There are naturally many questions that can be asked about the subject. One should observe that these developments with Iran have thrust Turkey into the same camp as Israel. It is obvious that Iran’s approach to Israel has not changed during this process. The legitimacy of a country that is almost 70 years old remains as a focal point of hatred within Iranian politics. As always, it is unclear what Tehran may do through its proxies in the area. The nuclear issue is being treated as a serious threat by Israel. To be honest, at this point the collection of nations is adopting an approach that is completely disregarding Israel’s concerns.

How worried is Ankara about a nuclear Iran? The statements about this issue are unclear and halfhearted in a way that is unfitting to the situation. Will this approach by Iran – a country that has been opposed to the Turkish approach to Syria from the very beginning – lead to a new era in Turkish – Israeli relations? Even if Turkey and Israel were to enter a period of closer relations over Iran, the future of these relations will definitely be questioned by both parties. In our country, where foreign policy is shaped on the streets through emotional statements that are far removed from rationality, the anti-Israeli rhetoric that has developed since Davos and has forcibly been labelled as “criticism” seriously restricts Ankara’s scope of action. This being said, this responsibility can easily be shifted to a coalition government that may be formed. The new foreign relations to be cultivated by such a government may be the precursor to elevate Turkey to a level that it may once again serve its foreign interest. Through the creation of more realistic foreign relations, Turkey may play a more constructive role in the creation of permanent solution in the area.

It is possible to answer all of these questions by using different models. However, brainstorming these issues does not mean that the problems will be completely resolved. How Turkey handles the peace process is an important factor in determining Ankara’s position in the area. Likewise, reaching a compromise on the Palestine problem will be a step towards mending the balances of the Middle East. However, this solution is dependent on first ending the deep rooted animosity between Fatah and Hamas. Before the Palestinians reach a compromise amongst themselves, it will not be possible to hold negotiations Israel that will lead to the desired permanent peace in the area.

Now we should calculate: Where in this equation is Turkey? Where is Israel? Where is Iran?

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